Economy Week Ahead: Exports, Inflation and Unemployment, SA Economy may contract  49% second quarter

The South African Year on year, GDP is expected to fall 16.5% in the three months to end-June, according to a Bloomberg survey

The extent to which Covid-19 shutdowns pummelled SA’s already ailing economy is in focus in the week ahead, with second-quarter GDP figures expected to show that the economy as much as halved when compared with the first three months of the year.

The Bloomberg consensus is for a GDP contraction of 49% quarter on quarter, but analysts say early signs are that there was a recovery in the third. Year on year, GDP is expected to fall 16.5% in the three months to end-June, according to the 11 economists surveyed by Friday.


U.S. consumer prices are expected to rise for the third consecutive month


Inflation is in focus during a relatively light week for economic data. August consumer prices for China are out Wednesday and for the U.S on Friday.


China’s August exports likely rose 7.3% from a year earlier thanks to the sustained global recovery and last year’s low base, according to a Wall Street Journal poll. That would extend July’s surprisingly strong 7.2% growth. The contraction in imports likely narrowed to 0.2% in August from 1.4% in July, as domestic demand continued to recover. August’s trade surplus is expected to narrow to $51.85 billion from $62.33 billion in July.


Japan’s second-quarter gross domestic product is expected to be revised down from the initial estimate of a 7.8% contraction from the prior quarter, reflecting weaker capital expenditure plans. A separate release on household spending for July is forecast to show a 3.7% decline, following June’s 1.2% drop, underscoring broad economic weakness at the start of the third quarter.

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